What is the purpose of this study?
Only when people understand how much it really costs them to sit in traffic will they be willing – and will lawmakers be willing – to change the way we invest in transportation in this region. All traffic is not the same. Traffic patterns in the urban core are different from traffic patterns in the outlying counties. In order to determine the most efficient solutions, we need a deeper, nuanced understanding of the problem.
Who conducted the research for this report?
The report stems from a study commissioned by the Metropolitan Planning Council and conducted by HDR Decision Economics, in association with Alex Anas, PhD, professor of economics, State University of New York at Buffalo .
What counties are included in the study?
The study encompasses Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties, including the City of Chicago . Kendall and Grundy counties also were included in the technical analysis, but contributed so little to regional congestion that they were omitted from the executive summary.
What are the key findings of this study?
- Due to excess traffic congestion on the entire region’s transportation network, metropolitan Chicago squanders at least $7.3 billion a year in lost time, fuel, productivity, and environmental damages – nearly twice the largest previous estimate.
- If nothing is done, that figure is predicted to grow by 55 percent by 2030, more than twice as fast as the region’s population, to about $11.3 billion a year.
- The $7.3 billion total regional cost includes the cost of lost time, fuel and environmental damages, which are the following:
* $6.98 billion in lost time
* $354 million in wasted fuel (Estimate is based on 2005 fuel prices; today’s gas prices drive that figure closer to $680 million.)
* $33 million in environmental damages (Researchers say this is a very conservative estimate.)
- Gridlock also increases labor costs, impeding the creation of 87,000 jobs.
- Lost time costs the Chicago-area economy and its drivers nearly 20 times more than the cost of wasted fuel.
- Regionally, congestion adds 22 percent to peak period travel times, or about 66 extra minutes each week for a driver whose commute should take 30 minutes each direction. Within Chicago itself, congestion increases peak period travel times by about 40 percent, or about 120 minutes extra per week for someone with a one-hour round-trip commute.
- The cost of a solution must not exceed the cost of congestion.
- Solutions must balance the needs of business, society, and the environment.
- Solutions must be regional in scope.
- Solutions must address congestion on expressways and arterial roads.
- Solutions must address wasted time as well as fuel.
The study determined that gridlock causes weekday travel times to be about 22 percent higher than they rightfully should be, which means a trip that should take 30 minutes takes closer to 37. Drivers in our region have adapted to irregular congestion by building buffer time into trips. Extra time may be necessary and may not, but in the end, lack of certainly results in wasted time and money.
Congestion is greatest (in terms of lost time) in and around Chicago and Cook County , particularly on expressways. Cook County is the primary destination for most of the region’s workers: 41.5 percent of DuPage County residents work in Cook County , followed by Will (40 percent), Lake (35 percent), McHenry (31.6 percent), and Kane (27.3 percent). In other words, much of the traffic in and around Chicago originates in surrounding counties. However, the majority of the region’s lost time due to congestion actually occurs on arterial roads, not highways. Congestion (measured both in vehicle-miles and vehicle-hours traveled) is worse on arterial roads than on expressways in all parts of the region except Chicago. What’s more, traffic on arterial roads has greater negative environmental effects than expressway traffic. Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) Urban Mobility report ?
HDR Decision Economics took the analysis a step beyond the TTI estimate to examine gridlock over longer periods of the day and across a larger portion of the road network. In addition, the study uses average speeds based on data provided by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, which were lower than the TTI estimates.
CMAP’s 2006 Congestion Management System report measured recurrent congestion that results from the interaction of limited road capacity and usual traffic volumes throughout the day. Using this as a starting point, the researchers at HDR Decision Economics conservatively estimated delay relative to average speeds under relatively uncongested conditions (as opposed to free-flow). For each sub-area of the region, and separately for arterials versus expressways, the average speed is calculated for the uncongested section as the ratio of total vehicle-miles of travel to total vehicle-hours of travel. This was used to determine hours-per-mile, and vehicle-hours of delay. Because lost time can have different values, researchers also broke out the cost of lost time for three different regional sub-sectors: the freight industry, “off-the-clock” driving (including commuting), and “on-the-clock” driving, such as deliveries and business trips. Researchers then multiplied cost per hour times total hours of delay for each sector to determine a total figure.
The cost of wasted fuel was estimated using average speeds under congested and relatively uncongested conditions, and TTI’s equation for miles per gallon. The cost of gasoline was set at $1.88 per gallon, the average Illinois retail price in 2005 (the reference year for all calculations in this analysis), which excludes federal, state, and local taxes.
It’s true that gas prices are much higher than in 2005, and continue to rise. However, it’s surprising for people to know that, even as they pump more and more money into their gas tanks, the cost of their lost time due to gridlock far outweighs the cost of gas. If we substitute 2008 fuel price averages, the cost of congestion due to wasted fuel would tally $680 million – still a fraction of the cost of wasted time, which is estimated at $6.9 billion total for freight, commuters and other businesses.
Congestion increases transportation and labor costs, most notably by increasing the length of the daily commute. To estimate the reduction in employment in the Chicago region that results from excess congestion, HDR assumed that half of the additional costs caused by congestion get passed onto employers. By calculating the value of the number of hours per year that commuters in the Chicago region lose to congestion, HDR was able to determine how much money employers lose because their employees are stuck in traffic. From here, HDR calculated a percent reduction in employment of 1.94. In 2005, the Chicago metropolitan area had 4,482,000 workers. With a 1.94 percent reduction in employees, HDR determined that congestion forced employers in the region to forgo creating 87,000 jobs. Determining the environmental costs of congestion required a three-step process – determine the cost of one ton of relevant pollutants, determine the output of pollutants resulting from congestion, and, from that, determine the total cost of pollution. This report used air pollution cost estimates from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Economic Requirement System – State Version. For example, one ton of carbon monoxide has damage costs of $100, one ton of sulfur dioxide has damage costs of $8,400.
The old ways need to give way to new ways. Over the last 20 years, 2,000 miles of new lanes have been added to the region’s highways and arterial roads – a 15 percent increase – yet average rush-hour commute times have doubled. Meanwhile, federal and state funding for capital construction have not kept pace with increased construction costs, which are rising 10 percent per year. MPC’s report states the following criteria for solutions to gridlock:
